President Hyperbole

It was with great interest that I read about the drop in unemployment numbers for July. It probably did nothing to cheer the 247,000 people that lost their jobs last month. President Obama appeared in the Rose Garden of the White House and announced that his administration had rescued us from "economic catastrophe." Hold on just a moment, Mr. President.

Though the unemployment rate did drop by one-tenth of a percent, it is a little misleading. That did not account for the 400,000 people who dropped off of the unemployment rolls and have simply given up looking. If they were counted, the unemployment rate would have ticked up two-tenths of one percent.

This isn't to say that there aren't signs of improvement: average work week is up slightly to 33.1 hours for the first time in a while; the economy contracted only 1% in the last quarter, a significant improvement; employer surveys indicate that the job-shedding is over if things remain stable. But, to say we've avoided catastrophe by actions of this administration? The only truth to that statement would have to be found in two things: first, people's perception of the economy improving, which would have to shed some credit to the current leadership; and secondly, stemming the tide of bank failures due to their synthetic shenanigans, which is debatable in that the contagion might very well have righted itself after some additional bloodshed.

Further, only $100 billion of the $787 billion stimulus package has been released. How much has that money actually created in terms of real jobs? Since records started being kept in the late 1940's, never has one-third of the unemployed been unemployed for over 27 weeks. So, standing in the Rose Garden taking credit for averting global economic disaster is fraught with radioactive bulls..t.

I think President Obama is a very bright man. I read his books. I like the logical process he possesses in approaching problems. What I would like to see more of from him is a "roll up your sleeves" work ethic, primarily with his party's leaders in Congress. Instead of letting Pelosi and Reid run the whole process of inventing cures for America's ills, there needs to be hands-on management from the party's leader. If he's truly a centrist, and it is on this point that he was elected, he will have to do more than engage in hyperbole and apology to lead this country.

As one who has benefited from some of the President's initiatives, I am grateful for some of what has been done to right the ship of state, as well as to help those who have suffered from the recession. Taking the broader view, however, if one is elected by an electorate that considered President Obama to be a moderate, bi-partisan leader, he needs to be mindful that allowing a left-of-center Congressional leadership run the show will not bode well for mid-term elections, much less the presidential election in 2012.

Going Postal

The origins of the Postal Service hail back to 1692, when King William and Queen Mary ordained a post office scheme for the royal colonies. The United States Post Office was created by the Continental Congress in 1775 under the direction of Benjamin Franklin.

Railway mail service was begun in 1832 although it was not until 1869 that it became institutionalized as the Railway Mail Service. The story of the mail sorters on the rail cars sorting 600 pieces of mail per minute, often only seconds before some of it was to be delivered at the next station is legendary. Air Mail Service was established in 1918 and existed until 1975 domestically, and 1995 internationally, becoming obsolete in that air service was a given.

The current United States Postal Service is the third largest employer behind the Department of Defense and WalMart. It employs 760,000 employees, operates 260,00 vehicles and 32,741 post offices and locations. It is estimated that the cost to deliver your mail costs $235 per year, per residence. The USPS is an independent agency of the Executive Branch of government, with special powers but it is not a corporation owned by the government. Still, it operates like one.

The long-awaited demise of the USPS seems closer than ever. The budget shortfalls are chronic and there is now talk of closing 1,000 facilities and yet again, raising rates. After the success of UPS and FedEx, it was considered only a matter of time until the USPS drifted off into obsolescence. In fact, the internet has had the biggest impact on the USPS as it saw a 22% decline in First Class Mail from 1998 to 2007. It doesn't take a math genius to see that if, as reported, it takes an additional $8 million to fuel their fleet for every penny that gasoline prices rise, the Postal Service bleeds red ink profusely in an environment like we've witnessed over the last year or so.

With the advent of email, scanned documents, legal papers sent by fax and the like, it truly is a mystery as to how long the USPS will be able to survive. It's clear that it won't in its current form. On any given day, the legitimate mail vs. the direct advertising that's stuffed in our mailboxes is a small percentage. This will likely only increase as businesses must advertise, and they sure aren't doing it in print or other local media. The Economist reports that advertising revenues have fallen so precipitously that many magazines and newspapers are hanging on by their fingernails. Magazine ads will be down 18.3% this year while newspaper advertising will be off a stunning 26.5%. Radio ads are off 21.8%. This portends more direct mail advertising and perhaps a partial reprieve for the USPS.

With the handwriting on the proverbial wall, however, it tells of coming limitations in service offered by the USPS and undoubtedly, increases in postage rates. The world wide web now offers a plethora of services from greeting cards and invitations, to novel venues that give users instantaneous access to social discourse. There will, of course, be those graduation and wedding announcements that will be with us for at least until the baby boomers pass away. After that, the X and Y Generations will probably have invented a virtual notice that makes those obsolete as well.